Sizing Up the Oscar Race
November 6th 2009 03:44
This time every year the Oscar season is in full swing. It’s the period of the race in which uncertainties run wild and no one knows anything. Right now, all we have is speculation as very few of the “main contenders” have been screened. But here's what we do know:
Amelia has crashed and burned. Fox Searchlight’s grand sweeping epic was panned by critics and took a nose dive at the box office. This poses two questions:
1. What will Fox Searchlight do?
A surprising powerhouse at the Academy Awards for the last 3 years, Fox Searchlight has become known for their “little engine that could” films; first Little Miss Sunshine, then Juno[/I], and finally last year’s (undeserving) Best Picture winner, Slumdog Millionaire. They’ve proven they can not only make the cut of nominees but take home the gold man. This year, they had two wagons upon which to pitch their star: the aforementioned Amelia, a traditional sentimental biopic and (500) Days of Summer, an indie gem in the vain of their prior “underdog” films. Now that Amelia has sunk, the studio must begin pushing (500) Days of Summer if they want to guarantee a spot at this year’s festivities. Summer was a critical and commercial success, yet never seemed to gain the widespread and mainstream buzz like Juno. Fox Searchlight must begin a strong campaign and soon, as the film came out months ago and is scheduled for a late December DVD release. If Fox Searchlight decides to go a different route; the latest rumor revolves around pushing up the release date for Crazy Heart starring Jeff Bridges, with the hopes of making it their indie trojan horse. This seems like a risky move as no marketing has been released regarding the film and the only word of mouth refers to Bridges’ performance.
2. What will take Amelia’s place?
Usually the Academy likes at least one conventional epic masterpiece to appease the older, more traditional voters. Now that Amelia has pulled an Australia we, once again, look to the film or films (remember, 10 nominees this year), that will fill the void. The first obvious choice is Clint Eastwood’s Invictus, which fits the bill of epic biopic (However in recent years Eastwood appears to have his own designated spot in the best picture race so can we even count it?) This year Clint seems to be taking the mainstream approach rather than the quiet sneak attack. Usually Clint waits till the middle of December to screen his films, much less release footage. While Invictus has garnered a mid-December release, it has been promoted heavily via trailers and TV spots and even sponsored part of the World Series.
Along with Invictus there is Nine, which is more standard musical than biopic. Nine has yet to be screened for critics (it was pushed back from November 29th to December) so everything is speculation at this point. Will it be a powerhouse ala Chicago? Or will it fizzle like the severely underrated Phantom of the Opera?
The rest of the possible nominees are an eclectic mix of novel adaptations (The Lovely Bones, Precious), animation (Up), character driven dramas (Up in the Air, A Serious Man, An Education), light independent fare (500 Days of Summer), political commentary (The Hurt Locker), and sci-fi (Avatar).
Let’s stop for a moment, shall we? Avatar? Seriously? The buzz around this film is insane. The fact that it is actually receiving Oscar talk is ridiculous. It takes so much for a science fiction film to be recognized and just because James “Titanic” Cameron spent 15 years of his life making a film that he’s turning into a 3D extravaganza is no reason anyone should be throwing around the words “Best Picture Nomination”.
The final 10 (still can’t believe there will be 10!) nominees are anyone’s guess. Shutter Island (Scorsese starring DiCaprio) and Tree of Life (Malick starring Sean Penn) were both pushed back to 2010, freeing up room for underdogs to sweep in. Each year, the race is unpredictable and not without its share of frustrations. All we can do is guess what will happen in February. By next month the entire forecast could change.
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Comment by JohnDoe
Film & TV on DVD
I am one of those who completely lost any interesting in the Academy Awards for about 20 years (give me televised bro0adcasts of Canne, Sundance Tribeca etc.)...that is until last year where voters actually showed a little taste in some of the big awards. (though I would have been happy with either No Country for Old men or There Will be Blood winning, both were superb.)
Ten best picture noms means that maybe there will be some more appropriate nominees instead of fluff. (I will never forgive the Forrest Gump win, NEVER!!!....KHAN!!!!)
As for who will win, I have had a horrible year for movie watching (haven't even seen The Hurt Locker), just haven't had time...Immigrating from Oz to the US will do that.
So my opinion on the Oscars will really depend on what is out on DVD I want to see before the big night. (eg: Up, A Serious Man, 500 days of Summer)
If your interested I have done some Oscars related post you may enjoy reading, just click the title link:
John Doe’s Nominations: Best Pictures 1997-2006 , John Doe’s 10 WORST Best Picture Winners
Has the Academy developed Oscar's taste?
Comment by Cinema is truth
Cinema is Truth
Cinema is Truth