2012 Academy Award Nominations Predictions
January 24th 2012 02:02
This is an odd year for the Oscars and the main reason for this is the mystery of how many films will be nominated for Best Picture. The number will be no less than five and no more than ten. Most pundits are predicting there will be around seven films. The other questions in this award season go something like this:
How much did the Academy like Tree of Life? Will it get in for Best Pic? Director? Will Brad Pitt surprise in a Best Supporting Actor nod to add to his suspected Best Actor nomination? Does the Academy love Bridesmaids as much as the rest of critics/awards shows? I’m predicting it gets in for picture and probably screenplay as well but I have a strong feeling McCarthy will end up being snubbed.
Has War Horse really lost all its steam? Most are saying this is the case and it really doesn’t have much Guild support behind it. I have it just creeping into the top 10 (if there are actually ten) but I feel it will be largely ignored aside from the technical categories.
It will be interesting to see which films the Academy chooses to embrace – do they like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo? Will they recognize Michael Fassbender in Shame? Will there be a surprise in a last minute surge of love for Take Shelter? That’s the talk round the Award circuit today and it’ll be interesting to see what ends up being the case. Can Ben Kingsley come out of nowhere and earn a nod for Hugo? What about Max Von Sydow? Can he turn up and give a nod Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; a film that early last year was already an Awards favorite until it crashed and burned during the actual season.
There are many questions and few answers to be had – all we can do is take our best shot at predicting what is always a largely unpredictable nominations morning.
<lj-cut text="Predix along with comments">
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Moneyball
6. Midnight in Paris
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8. Bridesmaids
9. Tree of Life
10. War Horse
This represents my order in what I think are locks for the five that there will definitely be and the order I feel would be the next ones to make the cut. It was a tough call for that fifth position. I feel it could really be interchanged with Midnight in Paris but those top four are absolutes in my opinion. Shockers here could very well be Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy which has seen a last minute awards push after being largely absent or the surprising showing of Ides of March, an awards bait film in all ways.
Best Actor
George Clooney – The Descendants
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Michael Fassbender – Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
Alternate: Michael Shannon – Take Shelter
There are three locks in this category: Clooney, Pitt and Dujardin. The rest has been a revolving door of possibilities. Does the Academy like J Edgar at all? Do they like Leo enough to nominate him in the role? Will they recognize Fassbender for Shame in a film that is otherwise likely to be omitted due to its subject matter? Gary Oldman had been talked about forever – he was even a lock at one point. And then he failed to show up in most of the precursor awards. It’s very possible he could still pop up here and I for one would be incredibly happy but I’m not predicting it.
My alternate here is Michael Shannon, based upon news that he’s had some strong late buzz. This honestly would be the most amazing thing to happen and I’d probably scream. My dream here would be both Shannon and Fassbender making the cut.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn
Viola Davis – The Help
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternate: Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
I made a last minute change here swapped out Glenn Close for Rooney Mara. I feel like the Academy may overlook a film that was largely considered mediocre. Swinton is also not completely a lock here.
Best Supporting Actor
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Armie Hammer – J Edgar
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Kenneth Brannagh – My Week with Marilyn
Nick Nolte – Warrior
Alternate: Brad Pitt – Tree of Life
This is an incredibly unpredictable category. I’m predicting a shock here in an Armie Hammer nomination. I don’t think many people are doing that. Still, this line-up could be completely different. I’ve omitted Albert Brooks at the last minute and opted for the alternate shocker of Pitt for Tree of Life.
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Berenice Bejo – The Artist
Judi Dench – My Week with Marilyn
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Alternate: Shaileen Woodley – The Descendants
As stated above, I feel like McCarthy could be in for a snub here. This category is also unpredictable. I feel they may opt for an oldie like Judi Dench and may shun a young one like McTeer. Whereas I see Close falling just on the outside, I can see McTeer making the cut.
Best Director
Martin Scorsese – Hugo
Michel Hanazavicious – The Artist
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternate: Terrance Malick – Tree of Life
I nearly put Spielberg as an alternate and it may still go that way but right now I don’t feel there’s all that much love for Warhorse.
Best Original Screenplay
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Win Win
Bridesmaids
Young Adult
Alternate: Beginners
At the last second I swapped out 50/50 for Win Win. Many people aren’t predicting Young Adult but I’m not going to underestimate the Cody factor.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Moneyball
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternate: The Ides of March
Comments: I feel pretty confident with this bunch.
Best Editing
The Girl with Dragon Tattoo
The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
Moneyball
Alternate: War Horse
Comments: At the last minute I changed War Horse for The Descendants. I’d guess the weakest one here might be Moneyball.
Best Cinematography
Tree of Life
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Girl with Dragon Tattoo
Alternate: Drive
Best Art Direction
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Harry Potter
Tree of Life
Alternate: War Horse
Comments on these two categories: Honestly, there’s always at least one surprising addition or omission – I really am not sure what will happen here.
Best Costume Design
Jane Eyre
Hugo
Anonymous
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alternate: The Help
Comments: Took kind of a risk on Tinker Tailor getting in. Could also see one of the many superhero films making the cut.
Best Sound Mixing
Hanna
Super 8
Moneyball
Hugo
Harry Potter
Alternate: Transformers
Sound Editing
Mission Impossible
War Horse
Hugo
Rise of the planet of the Apes
Transformers
Alternate: TinTin
Comments on both of these: Honestly, these are a crap shoot. You never know what will show up in one category, what won’t in another. I have no idea if any of these will be correct.
Original Score
The Artist
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Hugo
Harrry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternate: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Comments: I can see them nominating one last Harry Potter film.
Foreign Film
A Separation
In Darkness
Warriors of the Rainbow
Pina
Footnote
Alternate: Bullhead
Comments: The only lock I’m certain of is A Separation. Anything else can happen here.
Documentary
Project Nim
Paradise Lost 3
Bill Cuningham for New York
Buck
We Were Here
Alternate: Undefeated
Alternate: Really feel like many of these can be interchangeable – documentary is always an unpredictable category.
Animated
Rango
The Adventures of TinTin
Kung Fu Panda 2
Possible other two films:
Cars 2
Winnie the Pooh
Comments: There’s the possibility that 5 films could get nominated. There will be at least three. The top three are what I’m expecting to show up. The other two are the ones I feel could make the cut.
Visual Effects
Rise of Planet of the Apes
Hugo
Tree of Life
Captain America
Harry Potter
Alternate: Pirates
Comments: I put Captain America in at the last second.
Make-up
The Artist
Anonymous
The Iron Lady
Alternate: Hugo
Alternate: I usually get like 1 out 3 right in this category. No one knows anything about make-up. Seriously.
Best Song:
The Living Proof – The Help
Life’s a Happy Song – The Muppets
Hello Hello – Gnomeo and Juliet
Pictures in my Head – The Muppets
Lay my head Down – Albert Nobbs
Alternate: Star Spangled Man – Captain America
Alternate: Honestly, who knows here. Really. Did Captain America as a last minute alternate.
As always, am not predicting any of the Short film categories.
My three No Guts No Glory predictions: Damien Bichir gets in for Best Actor (A Better Life), Elizabeth Olsen gets in for Best Actress (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Drive gets in for Editing
Final Tallies:
The Artist - 11
Hugo - 11
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - 6 or 7 (depending on the number of best pic noms)
The Help - 6
Moneyball - 5
The Descendants - 5
Harry Potter - 4
Tree of Life - 3 or 4 (depending on the number of best pic noms)
My Week with Marilyn - 3
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Midnight in Paris - 2 or 3 (depending on the number of best pic noms)
Warhorse - 2 or 3 (depending on the number of best pic noms)
Bridesmaids - 1 or 2 (depending on number of best pic noms)
J Edgar - 2
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - 2
Albert Nobbs - 2
The Muppets - 2
The Iron Lady - 2
Anonymous - 2
Beginners - 1
Hanna - 1
Super 8 - 1
Mission Impossible - 1
Gnomeo and Juliet - 1
Warrior - 1
Young Adult - 1
Win Win - 1
Captain America - 1
Shame - 1
We Need to Talk About Kevin - 1
Jane Eyre - 1
Adventures of TinTin - 1
Transformers - 1
Rango - 1
A Separation - 1
Kung Fu Panda 2 -1
How much did the Academy like Tree of Life? Will it get in for Best Pic? Director? Will Brad Pitt surprise in a Best Supporting Actor nod to add to his suspected Best Actor nomination? Does the Academy love Bridesmaids as much as the rest of critics/awards shows? I’m predicting it gets in for picture and probably screenplay as well but I have a strong feeling McCarthy will end up being snubbed.
Has War Horse really lost all its steam? Most are saying this is the case and it really doesn’t have much Guild support behind it. I have it just creeping into the top 10 (if there are actually ten) but I feel it will be largely ignored aside from the technical categories.
It will be interesting to see which films the Academy chooses to embrace – do they like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo? Will they recognize Michael Fassbender in Shame? Will there be a surprise in a last minute surge of love for Take Shelter? That’s the talk round the Award circuit today and it’ll be interesting to see what ends up being the case. Can Ben Kingsley come out of nowhere and earn a nod for Hugo? What about Max Von Sydow? Can he turn up and give a nod Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; a film that early last year was already an Awards favorite until it crashed and burned during the actual season.
There are many questions and few answers to be had – all we can do is take our best shot at predicting what is always a largely unpredictable nominations morning.
<lj-cut text="Predix along with comments">
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Moneyball
6. Midnight in Paris
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8. Bridesmaids
9. Tree of Life
10. War Horse
This represents my order in what I think are locks for the five that there will definitely be and the order I feel would be the next ones to make the cut. It was a tough call for that fifth position. I feel it could really be interchanged with Midnight in Paris but those top four are absolutes in my opinion. Shockers here could very well be Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy which has seen a last minute awards push after being largely absent or the surprising showing of Ides of March, an awards bait film in all ways.
Best Actor
George Clooney – The Descendants
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Michael Fassbender – Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
Alternate: Michael Shannon – Take Shelter
There are three locks in this category: Clooney, Pitt and Dujardin. The rest has been a revolving door of possibilities. Does the Academy like J Edgar at all? Do they like Leo enough to nominate him in the role? Will they recognize Fassbender for Shame in a film that is otherwise likely to be omitted due to its subject matter? Gary Oldman had been talked about forever – he was even a lock at one point. And then he failed to show up in most of the precursor awards. It’s very possible he could still pop up here and I for one would be incredibly happy but I’m not predicting it.
My alternate here is Michael Shannon, based upon news that he’s had some strong late buzz. This honestly would be the most amazing thing to happen and I’d probably scream. My dream here would be both Shannon and Fassbender making the cut.
Best Actress
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn
Viola Davis – The Help
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternate: Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
I made a last minute change here swapped out Glenn Close for Rooney Mara. I feel like the Academy may overlook a film that was largely considered mediocre. Swinton is also not completely a lock here.
Best Supporting Actor
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Armie Hammer – J Edgar
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Kenneth Brannagh – My Week with Marilyn
Nick Nolte – Warrior
Alternate: Brad Pitt – Tree of Life
This is an incredibly unpredictable category. I’m predicting a shock here in an Armie Hammer nomination. I don’t think many people are doing that. Still, this line-up could be completely different. I’ve omitted Albert Brooks at the last minute and opted for the alternate shocker of Pitt for Tree of Life.
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Berenice Bejo – The Artist
Judi Dench – My Week with Marilyn
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Alternate: Shaileen Woodley – The Descendants
As stated above, I feel like McCarthy could be in for a snub here. This category is also unpredictable. I feel they may opt for an oldie like Judi Dench and may shun a young one like McTeer. Whereas I see Close falling just on the outside, I can see McTeer making the cut.
Best Director
Martin Scorsese – Hugo
Michel Hanazavicious – The Artist
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternate: Terrance Malick – Tree of Life
I nearly put Spielberg as an alternate and it may still go that way but right now I don’t feel there’s all that much love for Warhorse.
Best Original Screenplay
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Win Win
Bridesmaids
Young Adult
Alternate: Beginners
At the last second I swapped out 50/50 for Win Win. Many people aren’t predicting Young Adult but I’m not going to underestimate the Cody factor.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Moneyball
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternate: The Ides of March
Comments: I feel pretty confident with this bunch.
Best Editing
The Girl with Dragon Tattoo
The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
Moneyball
Alternate: War Horse
Comments: At the last minute I changed War Horse for The Descendants. I’d guess the weakest one here might be Moneyball.
Best Cinematography
Tree of Life
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Girl with Dragon Tattoo
Alternate: Drive
Best Art Direction
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Harry Potter
Tree of Life
Alternate: War Horse
Comments on these two categories: Honestly, there’s always at least one surprising addition or omission – I really am not sure what will happen here.
Best Costume Design
Jane Eyre
Hugo
Anonymous
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alternate: The Help
Comments: Took kind of a risk on Tinker Tailor getting in. Could also see one of the many superhero films making the cut.
Best Sound Mixing
Hanna
Super 8
Moneyball
Hugo
Harry Potter
Alternate: Transformers
Sound Editing
Mission Impossible
War Horse
Hugo
Rise of the planet of the Apes
Transformers
Alternate: TinTin
Comments on both of these: Honestly, these are a crap shoot. You never know what will show up in one category, what won’t in another. I have no idea if any of these will be correct.
Original Score
The Artist
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Hugo
Harrry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternate: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Comments: I can see them nominating one last Harry Potter film.
Foreign Film
A Separation
In Darkness
Warriors of the Rainbow
Pina
Footnote
Alternate: Bullhead
Comments: The only lock I’m certain of is A Separation. Anything else can happen here.
Documentary
Project Nim
Paradise Lost 3
Bill Cuningham for New York
Buck
We Were Here
Alternate: Undefeated
Alternate: Really feel like many of these can be interchangeable – documentary is always an unpredictable category.
Animated
Rango
The Adventures of TinTin
Kung Fu Panda 2
Possible other two films:
Cars 2
Winnie the Pooh
Comments: There’s the possibility that 5 films could get nominated. There will be at least three. The top three are what I’m expecting to show up. The other two are the ones I feel could make the cut.
Visual Effects
Rise of Planet of the Apes
Hugo
Tree of Life
Captain America
Harry Potter
Alternate: Pirates
Comments: I put Captain America in at the last second.
Make-up
The Artist
Anonymous
The Iron Lady
Alternate: Hugo
Alternate: I usually get like 1 out 3 right in this category. No one knows anything about make-up. Seriously.
Best Song:
The Living Proof – The Help
Life’s a Happy Song – The Muppets
Hello Hello – Gnomeo and Juliet
Pictures in my Head – The Muppets
Lay my head Down – Albert Nobbs
Alternate: Star Spangled Man – Captain America
Alternate: Honestly, who knows here. Really. Did Captain America as a last minute alternate.
As always, am not predicting any of the Short film categories.
My three No Guts No Glory predictions: Damien Bichir gets in for Best Actor (A Better Life), Elizabeth Olsen gets in for Best Actress (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Drive gets in for Editing
Final Tallies:
The Artist - 11
Hugo - 11
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - 6 or 7 (depending on the number of best pic noms)
The Help - 6
Moneyball - 5
The Descendants - 5
Harry Potter - 4
Tree of Life - 3 or 4 (depending on the number of best pic noms)
My Week with Marilyn - 3
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Midnight in Paris - 2 or 3 (depending on the number of best pic noms)
Warhorse - 2 or 3 (depending on the number of best pic noms)
Bridesmaids - 1 or 2 (depending on number of best pic noms)
J Edgar - 2
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - 2
Albert Nobbs - 2
The Muppets - 2
The Iron Lady - 2
Anonymous - 2
Beginners - 1
Hanna - 1
Super 8 - 1
Mission Impossible - 1
Gnomeo and Juliet - 1
Warrior - 1
Young Adult - 1
Win Win - 1
Captain America - 1
Shame - 1
We Need to Talk About Kevin - 1
Jane Eyre - 1
Adventures of TinTin - 1
Transformers - 1
Rango - 1
A Separation - 1
Kung Fu Panda 2 -1
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